PhD Palshina
E.N.
The
Ural Federal University, named the first Russian President BN Yeltsin,
Ekaterinburg, Russia
ANTAGONISM
OF STABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOPING AND SOCIAL PROBLEMS IN THE MODERN WORLD
The
world community faces today a problem of support of the economic growth rates,
capable to supply progress reaching in mankind developing. Problems which the
mankind faces, anyhow, carry the economic nature: military conflicts,
ecological cataclysms, hunger and diseases – solutions on such different
problems are largely determined by financial aspects. These consequences
consist in necessity of restoring of territories – their infrastructure,
agriculture, manufacturing, the places of residence of the population and
overcoming of consequences of demographic deformations.
Overcoming
of consequences both global, and local problems depends on ambitions and
financial possibilities of the most developed countries of the world. Rate and
level of economic developing of the well-founded countries determines a
population standard of living in them, that, in turn, adds an impulse to
developing of economy of other countries of the world.
The
measures undertaken today by the governments of the advanced countries for
adjustment of growth of economic, are interfaced to application of variety of
the mechanisms routed on stabilization and bar of claim by lapse of time of
negative consequences of uncontrollable growth as economy of the separate
states, so economic as a whole. However, dangerous can be and consequences of
stagnant manifestations, therefore the economic permanently balances between
extreme measures.
One of corner problems whom the world
community should face at stimulation of growth of economic, it is necessity of
income leveling and a population standard of living for the separate countries
and even world locales. The sharpest discussions the last decades mention
questions of a social inequality in company and possible roads of its
overcoming. Thereupon a number of theories is devoted framing reasonable, from
the point of view of efficiency, systems of application of the state
instruments for economy adjustment so that, seriously not infringing interests
of different grades of the population, to supply reaching of probably higher
metrics of economic development.
Modern
practice, unfortunately, does not allocate effective model of economy which
would combine in itself interests of economic groups – consumers and
manufacturers, and would consider these interests to equal satisfaction for
both sides. It is not necessary to understand, however, that such model is
essentially inaccessible, the problem that uniform "recipe" for its
construction to find hardly will be possible. It is absolutely necessary to
aspire to draw up ratios in company between manufacturers and äîìîõîçÿéñòâàìè
by means of state regulation so that, supplying due economic growth rate not to
do company even more socially and economically unequal, so, – antagonist [1].
Thereupon
it is necessary, according to the author, to research such basic questions, as,
in – the first: whether social problems are containing growth of economic and,
in – the second: whether overcoming in full or in part those reasons which stir
to mankind progress is possible.
Realization
of research suffices for the high-grade answer to these questions within the
limits of any one science, whether it be sociology, political science or
economy. Rather high-grade solution probably to specify only in case of
fruitful cooperation of variety of scientific disciplines in the most different
areas and spheres of the human knowledge anyhow mentioning all aspects of life
of company.
Much
in this direction is made by economists as past, and present time, within the
limits of search of the compromise supplying harmonic functioning of economic
agents within the limits of system of ratios. The most problematic sides, at
making up of approaches of stimulation of economy, social aspects of unfair
character of allocating of the newly founded cost traditionally were. The
considerable quantity of approaches to understanding and methods of incarnation
of ideas of harmonization and company socialization, was generated by plural
currents and schools in an economic theory, offering construction of models
socially safe, and simultaneously economically effective company. The spectrum
of these models is wide and leans against the diverse theories which are making
up types of ratios in ideal company, allowing individuals to be free in
decision-making and to feel itself happy. The question on justice at the
command of resources from the point of view of the property on them, and in
allocating of the product manufactured by company is the most debatable and
ambiguous as from the point of view of conceptual filling, and incarnation in
practice.
Influence
of financial loss from consequences of any events – wars, technogenic accidents
and others, on a country economy consists in deceleration of rates of its
developing in all spheres, and first of all in economic, supplying, in a final
degree, restoring of the state and its further progress. In the conditions of
world globalization processes,
local problems gain the universal resonance which is especially brightly
appearing in economy [4].
Considering
the social factors influencing rates of world economic growth, it is necessary
to evaluate quality of life of people, which deteriorating, first of all
determines level of incomes of families. Revenue position households,
according to the author, is primary and determines further factors – residing
conditions, quantity and quality of food, and then and possibility of members
of the family in incarnation of potential capabilities for support of the
existence and existence of following generation, i.e. the direct descendants which
starting point is again – the income value. Thus, the circle starts and becomes
isolated on the family income, which supplies a survival to its members at
qualitatively comprehensible level capable at least to supply playback of the
number [3].
Extrinsic
value and urgency, according to the author, the justification of interrelation
of economic growth rates and population growth has.
It
is necessary to recognize doubtless, that in modern company necessity of making
up of essentially new mechanisms regulating not simply demographic, but social
processes determined by them is felt. It is necessary to carry budgetary and
monetary politics of the state to those mechanisms, at their effective usage.
On
the foreground among the factors influencing world economic growth and
simultaneously from it depending, there are problems of demographic boom and
hunger. The world's population part suffers from hunger, in a certain degree
for the reasons of physical shortage of the foodstuffs for support of all
requiring in him. It is not necessary to consider, however, that simple un-sufficiency
of manufacturing of food and retention of growth rates of production volumes of
the foodstuffs in the world from growth rates of the population, is the hunger
sole cause. This retention in a combination to non-uniformity of settling of territories
and distinctions natural – climatic
conditions of territories in the different countries and locales determine, in
turn, non-uniformity in manufacturing of a foodstuff.
Comprehensive
consideration of a demographic problem, gives its understanding ìíîãîàñïåêòíîñòè.
One of aspects is the increase ñðåäíåìèðîâîé life expectancies of the population in the world
which has increased since 47 years in 1950-1955 till 68 years in 2005–2010.
Scientists believe, that preserving of the installed tendency will reconcile to
that in 2045 number of older persons in the world will exceed for the first
time number of children. To the middle of the XXI-st century of the person at
the age of 60 years also will be higher to make 22% of the population of a
planet whereas in 1950 their share made 8 percent, and to the beginning of 2010
reached 11 percent [5]. Such demographic shift will have serious consequences
and will essentially be mirrored in all aspects of life of company. In economic
sphere population ageing will affect economic growth rates, the value of
savings, a pattern of consumption, labor markets, a provision of pensions and
process of a transfer of assets between generations. In social sphere
population ageing will affect railroad train of families and the living
condition, demand for housing, epidemiological conditions and demand for health
services.
But,
along with a problem of ageing of the population, the world faces one more
paradoxical problem: in the early fifties world average the
total coefficient of birth rate made about five births on one woman whereas on
the beginning of 2010 – about half of this metric, and all in some decades,
according to forecasts, it will reach level of simple reproduction – 2,1
children on one woman [5].
Statistics
testifies that the steady tendency of structural deformation of the population
takes place: the number born is simultaneously reduced and there is a
population ageing in the developed countries to an income high level, and
population vigorous growth in rather poor countries (the table ¹ 1).
Table 1. Population growth in
developed and developing countries, millions persons [6]
|
Years |
The developed countries of the world |
Developing countries and newly industrialized
countries |
|
1950 |
807 |
1 750 |
|
1960 |
910 |
2 130 |
|
1970 |
1 003 |
2 705 |
|
1980 |
1 081 |
3 365 |
|
1990 |
1 143 |
4 131 |
|
2000 |
1 193 |
4 880 |
|
2010 |
1 222 |
5 617 |
From
the table it is visible, that in the developed countries for 60 years the
quantity of people has increased only in one and a half time whereas population
"explosion" in the developing countries, occurred in the last third of
XX-th century, has reconciled in number doubling in these countries for the
same period. Experts are inclined to evaluate such dynamics, as result of high
birth rate and poverty.
As
a result of a population explosion the population of Asia for 30 years with
1980 for 2010 has increased from 2,4 billion to 4,1 billion person, Africa for
the same period from 472 million to 998 million persons, and the
The
today's level of development of company determines appearance new, unknown in
making up of theories about the population of the factors influencing both on
growth rates of the population of our planet, and on dynamics of consumption of
the food products which are lagging behind rates of their manufacturing.
Thereupon, following digits are rather informative.
Table 2. Change in consumption per unit of population in 2010 by 1990, times [6]
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The grain |
1,1 |
1,0 |
1,3 |
0,56 |
|
Meat |
1,3 |
2,5 |
1,8 |
0,65 |
|
Milk |
1,2 |
3,1 |
1,3 |
0,72 |
|
Fish |
1,2 |
2,5 |
1,0 |
0,69 |
|
Fruit |
1,4 |
3,7 |
1,0 |
0,81 |
|
Vegetables |
1,4 |
3,1 |
1,5 |
0,77 |
The
given tables show expansion in consumption of the main food products from the
countries with the greatest population –
According
to the author, from India, China, and, possibly, the CIS countries it is
necessary to expect Brazil in the nearest 20–50 years of serious expansion in
consumption (not only the foodstuffs) both owing to population increase, and
owing to growth of economy of these states.
The
considered countries will play a role of major users and in consumption of the
raw necessary for support of growing needs of the industry: the last some years
gross national product gain in
In
the conditions of population vigorous growth, special significance gains realization
of the demographic policy routed on constraining of growth of the population.
Experience of
In
the countries of Asia, Africa and
Problem
solution on a global scale, according to the author, is possible only through
domestic conversions, instead of by means of the outage help of the rich
countries, however, reforming of ratios in company, effective reforming, is
possible only on the prepared soil on which social conversions will allow to
reach qualitative improvement of a situation. In realization of conversions the
important role is played by the progress which explorer are the industrial
countries appearing as beacons, reference points for all other world. The
modern measures undertaken by the developed countries on rendering of
humanitarian, medical and other help to the poorest countries and locales, are
tolerance, politically correct, but are ineffective from the economic point of
view. Not looking at scale of programs of the international help, the author
believes, that by means of monetary payments and other similar measures it is
impossible to improve position of the population in the poor countries in a
little long-term perspective. Welfare poor not probably to increase, not
reducing in the same measure of welfare of other members of a society. Giving
to the poor population the part of the foodstuffs or money resources for its
acquisition, thereby occurs weaning these
resources for other part of the population, but thus quantity money, products,
in company does not increase – simply part of the blessings is reconstituted.
Possibly, well-founded countries and citizens can transfer this process without
an appreciable damage for themselves in current time, but similar measures do
not allow to increase product size in company and do the poor population
"full" only for a while.
Stimulation
in the poorest countries of conditions for economic growth would be more
effective: workstations, qualified personnel that would create additional
quantity of a product in system, not impoverishing thus other, more safe
members of a society.
Except
an inefficiency in a method of social welfare of the poor and poorest
countries, process of transmission of a share of the manufactured product
generates one more problem: the well-founded countries take away from themselves
resources, determining deceleration in the future of growth rates of the
economy.
Such
tendency is especially dangerous, as the system of "smoothing" which
is drawn up by the advanced countries, represents the global subsidiary circuit
when the poor countries receive from rich the help within the limits of set of
programs, not eliminating thus the reason of the poverty. The given situation,
inherently, is the international paternalism in the worst manifestation when
the countries – children consider due manifestation of care of from the
countries – fathers, motivating the requests, including long-term colonization
of the territories and the people.
The
existing extensive system is absolutely ineffective, as subsidized
the side cannot improve for a long time the existence, and only increases the
consumption for the bill at a time either periodically received product, or its
money's worth, as a result there is a growth of the aggregate demand which has
been not supported with creation of a new product. Thus the poverty reasons are
not eliminated, start conditions for the members of a society, supplying more
fair allocating of possibilities for support of the requirements independently
are not aligned. It would be much more effective to stimulate the poor
population to increase the welfare and to expand consumption by means of
investment with its possibilities to work, increasing the incomes with own
efforts. Such actions, unconditionally, would be wasteful, but they should be
considered, as investments as expended resources would not be consumed in the
short-term period, and would create new workstations in economy, determining
the balanced economic growth on a global scale [2].
One
of serious negative effects of considered processes is that the world community
faces today to a scale-up problem of food pricings in a certain degree because
diligence to supply the poor population with a foodstuff for the bill of
reconstituting of these products manufactured in the developed countries, calls
a boomerang effect – the population of the poor countries, not becoming more
richly, continues to increase the number counting on the further help of the
rich countries whereas the product in company does not become more, demand for
it grows, food pricings for everything grow also, that on themselves those
inhabitants who create this product, instead of poor more considerably feel.
Food
pricings, possibly, remain high and will save the tendency to growth and next
decade corrections as a result of response of a supply and demand to a high
level of the prices, however, are quite possible. Further dynamics of the world
prices for the foodstuffs, according to the author, will be determined largely
by such factors, as:
-
rates economic and demographic increase, first of all in the countries South – East
Asia and
-
the price for hydrocarbons: petroleum and other raw in the world markets, that
in a certain degree is determined by a policy in the field of bio-fuel
manufacturing;
-
production potentialities on increase in the tender of agricultural production
in the conditions of the limited ground resources, present technologies and
possible climatic fluctuations.
The
presented opinion returns us to necessity to access to consideration of the
factors, allowing to evaluate disproportions existing in the world as in the
ratio concerning simple things – between growth rates of the population of a
planet and foodstuffs increase in production, and on questions áîëå from items
economic and social – what roads of solution of problems of reconstituting of
resources to universal scale can be difficult.
Thus,
it is necessary to mark, that economic as ñëîæíîîðãàíèçîâàííàÿ the system is the developing,
evolving organism which laws of functioning are not always obvious. The modern
economic theory has necessary toolkit for the necessary analysis and
construction of the models routed on comprehensive solution of problems of
mankind.
References:
1. Anikin À.V. Youth
science. Life and
ideas of thinkers before K. Marx
/ A.V. Anikin. – M.: Politizdat,
1971.
2. History of economic thought /
ed. by Kruglov V.V., Balakhonova E.V. –
3. Saint-Simon. Selected works. –
V.1-2. – M.;
4. Volgin V.P. French Utopian communism / V.P. Volgin. – M.:
5. The report of World
Population Ageing "World Population Ageing," Population
Division United Nations, 2010.
6. Electronic resource. –
Access mode: http://www.worldbank.com